PC Outlook Remains Cautious, Despite Modest Third Quarter Gains, According to IDC

PC Outlook Remains Cautious, Despite Modest Third Quarter Gains, According to IDC

25 Nov 2014

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., November 25, 2014 – Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -2.7% in 2014, an improvement from the previous forecast of -3.7%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Although third quarter results were a few points ahead of forecast with shipments down only -0.5% from the prior year, most regions and market participants saw this as a short-term gain rather than as a sign of stronger growth in the medium- or long-term.

Mature regions continue to grow while a rebound in emerging regions has taken longer (due to a later impact from tablets as well as slower economics and commercial replacements). Western Europe and Japan performed better than expected in the third quarter, but the gains were driven by a rebound from last year and short-term factors such as building fourth quarter inventory earlier in the year and continuing Windows XP replacement activity. Despite the relative short-term strength, mature regions are expected to see PC shipments decline again in 2015 and contract slightly through the end of the forecast.

The consumer market came in slightly ahead of projections in the third quarter, but shipments are still expected to decline -5% in 2014. Pressure from tablets seems to be waning as penetration rises and tablets move to smaller sizes and lower price points. However, competition for disposable income from smartphones and phablets is rising. In addition, the market was boosted in the third quarter by factors such as a rise in low-cost systems in many markets and a rebound in Western Europe, which helped restore volume to earlier levels but not without cost in value of shipments.

“The expansion of entry-level models, encouraged by Windows 8 + Bing systems, has helped improve consumer volume in recent quarters and should extend past the fourth quarter,” said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide PC Trackers. “Chromebooks are similarly boosting the low-end commercial segment. However, the market is still recovering to near stable volumes with no significant growth in the forecast.”

“In the best case for PCs, we’d see a significant wave of replacements as users who spent on phones and tablets in recent years decide they really need to update their PC. Features like touch or convertibility, as well as Windows 10 could make systems more versatile and appealing, along with lower prices,” said Loren Loverde, Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers. “However, we’ve seen steady progress on prices and new designs over the past year, and replacements are stabilizing PC shipments but not boosting total volume. Going forward, as younger generations become more mobile and Web oriented, and emerging regions in particular prioritize converged devices (or economy in number of devices to purchase), the PC market will continue to face tough competition and be more focused on replacements, with limited potential for growth.”

PC Shipments by Region and Product Category, 2013-2018 (Shipments in millions)

Region Product Category

2013

2014*

2018*

Emerging Markets Desktop PC

85.7

80.2

76.4

Emerging Markets Portable PC

96.2

83.7

85.5

Emerging Markets Total PC

181.9

163.9

161.9

Mature Markets Desktop PC

51.1

53.3

44.8

Mature Markets Portable PC

82.2

89.4

85.2

Mature Markets Total PC

133.2

142.7

130.0

Worldwide Desktop PC

136.7

133.6

121.2

Worldwide Portable PC

178.4

173.1

170.7

Worldwide Total PC

315.1

306.7

291.9

Source:  IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, November 25, 2014

* Forecast data

See Table and Taxonomy Notes below.

PC Outlook Remains Cautious, Despite Modest Third Quarter GainsChart: WW PC Forecast by Product Cateogry, 2012 – 2015 (Units in Millions and YoY Growth) Description: Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, November 25, 2014. PC Forecast Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs, and do not include handhelds or Tablets such as the Apple iPad, or Android Tablets. 2-in-1 or hybrid systems such as the Microsoft Surface Pro are also excluded from the PC volume. Tags: PC Forecast, IDC, PC Tracker, Desktop PC , Portable PC, PC, Ultrabook, Ultraslim, Convertible, Mature Region, Emerging Region, November 2014, 2015 Author: IDC charts powered by iCharts

This chart is intended for public use in online news articles and social media. Instructions on how to embed this graphic are available by clicking here.

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Product Category, 2013-2018

Region Product Category

2013

2014*

2018*

Emerging Markets Desktop PC

-9.6%

-6.3%

-0.9%

Emerging Markets Portable PC

-12.9%

-13.0%

2.4%

Emerging Markets Total PC

-11.3%

-9.9%

0.8%

Mature Markets Desktop PC

-4.8%

4.4%

-2.3%

Mature Markets Portable PC

-9.3%

8.8%

-0.2%

Mature Markets Total PC

-7.6%

7.1%

-0.9%

Worldwide Desktop PC

-7.8%

-2.3%

-1.4%

Worldwide Portable PC

-11.3%

-2.9%

1.1%

Worldwide Total PC

-9.8%

-2.7%

0.0%

Source:  IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, November 25, 2014

* Forecast data

Table Note:  Mature Markets include U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada. Emerging Markets includes Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Middle East, and Africa (MEA).

Taxonomy Note:  PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs which possess non-detachable keyboards, and do not include handhelds or tablets such as the Apple iPad, Microsoft Surface Pro, or Android Tablets

IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in more than 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC’s Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. In 2014, IDC celebrates its 50th anniversary of providing strategic insights to help clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world’s leading Technology media, Research, and Events Company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.